2018 NFL Contract Projection: Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. Extension

Odell Beckham Jr. Measureables

Height: 5-11
Weight: 198
Age: 25
Experience: 4 seasons
Accolades: 3-Time Pro Bowler

New York Giants Projected 2018 Cap Space: $6.4M (per OverTheCap.com)

Profile

Odell Beckham Jr. is a game changer for an offense and a franchise. As the son of a former LSU football player and a track athlete, Beckham’s an elite athlete with top-tier speed, agility, acceleration, and leaping ability.

He runs crisp, clean routes and can win against press and off coverage. He’s also an amazing playmaker after the catch as well; he can turn slants and screens into chunks and touchdowns. And as we all know, Beckham’s hands are a thing of legend. He’s a nightmare matchup for any cornerback.

Over the course of his first three seasons, Beckham was one of the most productive players in NFL history, joining Randy Moss as the only players to begin their careers with three consecutive season of 1,300+ receiving yards and 10+ receiving TD.

Beckham’s temper tantrums (see: vs. Carolina, 2015) were the only marks on his resume. Defenders can get into his head and take him out of his game at times. His celebrity puts him under a microscope that has appeared to be too much for the young receiver at times. There’s also some injury risk, as Beckham has missed 16 games due to injury in his 4 seasons and is coming off a fractured ankle last season.

Regardless, Beckham Jr. is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, and he expected to be paid as such.

Production

Season G Tgt Rec Rec Yds Yds/Rec YAC/R Rec TD
2014 12 130 91 1305 14.3 5.3 12
2015 15 158 96 1450 15.1 6.1 13
2016 16 169 101 1367 13.5 5.3 10
2017 4 41 25 302 12.1 2.6 3
Totals 47 498 313 4424 14.1 5.4 38

Wide Receiver Market

As evidenced by this year’s free agency class, the wide receiver market is on fire. Sammy Watkins: $16 million per. Allen Robinson: $14 million per. Watkins, who can’t be considered as more than a WR1B, got a deal that compared to DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown, albeit shorter in length. OBJ will reap the benefits of this marketplace.

Player Comparables: PIT Antonio Brown, TB Mike Evans, HOU DeAndre Hopkins

Statistical Comparison (Two Year Averages Before Deal)

Beckham has been one of the most productive wide receivers in NFL history over his first 4 seasons. Only Julio Jones has averaged more receiving yards per game (95.3) than Beckham (94.1) in NFL history. Among comparables, only Antonio Brown averages more receptions and yards than Beckham.

Player Seasons Tgts/Gm Rec/Gm Rec YPG Yds/Rec YAC/Rec Rec Td/Gm
Antonio Brown 2015-16 11.2 7.8 100.6 12.9 4.2 0.71
Mike Evans 2016-17 10.0 5.4 74.9 13.9 1.9 0.55
DeAndre Hopkins 2015-16 10.7 5.9 77.3 13.1 2.6 0.47
Averages   10.6 6.4 84.3 13.3 2.9 0.58
Odell Beckham Jr. 2015-16* 10.5 6.4 90.9 14.3 5.7 0.74

* Does not include 2017; missed 12 games

Contract Comparison

Despite Brown’s APY, his contract is far less secure than Evans’ or Hopkins’. Of the three, Evans contract is the most player friendly.

Player Year Age Years Total APY GTD Full GTD 1st 3 2018 APY
Antonio Brown 2017 28 4 $68.0M $17.0M $19.0M $19.0M $48.9M $18.0M
Mike Evans 2018 24 5 $82.5M $16.5M $55.0M $38.3M $55.0M $16.5M
DeAndre Hopkins 2017 25 5 $81.0M $16.2M $49.0M $36.5M $49.0M $17.2M

2018 Cap Adjusted Annual Salary: $17.2 million

Contract information from www.overthecap.com

Leverage

OBJ is not only a far superior talent (rivaled by a small few in the NFL), but he’s a superior presence and brand for a team. He sells tickets, moves jerseys, and attracts eyeballs. His value to the franchise extends beyond the plays he makes on the football field, which is among the elite players at his position. He’s one of the world’s most recognizable athletes.

Beckham will make approximately $25 million over the next two seasons (5th-year option, 2019 franchise tag) if he doesn’t agree to a contract extension. The Giants can truly control Beckham for the next three seasons (+2020 tag).

Salary Floor: $18 million per season

When pen hits pad, Beckham will clear Antonio Brown’s $17 million APY by at least a $1 million per season. I highly doubt he will accept any less.

Salary Ceiling: $20 million per season

He wants quarterback money. He wants to be a $20 million player. He has a legitimate argument. As the NFL’s biggest international star, Beckham more than likely makes his franchise more actual business profit than most NFL quarterbacks.

Contract Projection

The way the situation is looking, it would be hard to say how it will unfold. Beckham is saying he won’t step foot on a football field without a new contract, but the possibility of that happening seems slim, especially given the fines associated with such a holdout.

Knowing he could dip back into free agency at 28, under a new CBA, and command another record-setting contract, Beckham should be inclined to take a shorter-term contract that will still set the wide receiver market.

The Giants probably won’t be inclined to do so when they can control him for the next three seasons at under $50 million (5th-year option, 2019 & 2020 franchise tags). They will want a longer-term extension if anything is done this offseason.

Team Ideal: 5 years, $90.0 million, $18.0 million APY, $40 million full GTD

Player Ideal: 3 years, $57.0 million, $19.0 million APY, $50 million full GTD

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