2018 NFL Contract Projection: Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Measureables

Height: 6-2
Weight: 223
Age: 34
Experience: 13 seasons
Status: Under contract through 2019
2-Time NFL MVP, 6-Time Pro Bowler

Green Bay Packers Projected Cap Space (Top 51): $16.5 Million (per Over The Cap)

Aaron Rodgers Profile

NFL MVP. Super Bowl MVP. 6-Time Pro Bowler. Aaron Rodgers resume speaks for itself. He’s, unquestionably, the best quarterback I have every seen with my own eyes. He has every desirable trait a team could want in a franchise quarterback.

Rodgers’ arm talent is amazing. He has a huge arm that has gotten better as his career has progressed. He has the velocity to push it through the tightest of windows and the touch to drop the ball in a bucket. He’s probably the most accurate quarterback in the NFL, especially down the field.

Rodgers is one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the game and rarely turns the ball over, although he does force some balls he shouldn’t. He’s also technically sound, with quick feet and great athleticism to take that technique to a different level.

Rodgers is the highest-rated passer in NFL history, and his TD-INT ratio (4.1) and interception percentage (1.6). He’s carried many mediocre Packers teams to the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers Production

Yr G W L Cmp % Yds TD INT Rate GA Rush TD
2008 16 6 10 63.6 4038 28 13 93.8 16 4
2009 16 11 5 64.7 4434 30 7 103.2 11 5
2010 15 10 5 65.7 3922 28 11 101.2 12 4
2011 15 14 1 68.3 4643 45 6 122.5 6 3
2012 16 11 5 67.2 4295 39 8 108 12 2
2013 9 6 3 66.6 2536 17 6 104.9 6 0
2014 16 12 4 65.6 4381 38 5 112.2 7 2
2015 16 10 6 60.7 3821 31 8 92.7 12 1
2016 16 10 6 65.7 4428 40 7 104.2 11 4
2017 7 4 3 64.7 1675 16 6 97.2 7 0
Total 142 94 48 65.2 38,173 312 77 104.2 100 25

Quarterback Market

As mentioned before, the quarterback market isn’t about who’s best. It’s about who’s next. It just so happens that this time around the best is next.

Player Comparables: SF Jimmy Garoppolo, DET Matthew Stafford, WAS Kirk Cousins

Contract Comparison

This is merely an exercise. None of the contract comparables are even close to the type of player that Rodgers is.

Player Year Age Yrs Total APY GTD Full GTD ‘18 APY
Matthew Stafford 2017 29 5 $135.0M $27.0M $92.0M $60.5M $28.8M
Jimmy Garoppolo 2018 26 5 $137.5M $27.5M $74.1M $48.7M $27.5M
Averages 27.5 5.0 $136.3M $27.3M $83.1M $54.6M $28.2M

2018 Salary Cap Adjusted Average Annual Value: $28.2 million

Statistical Comparison

Rodgers is the most talented quarterback in NFL history. I have no problem making that statement. He has carried the Packers offense since becoming the full-time starter in 2008.

Player Years W-L Comp Pct Pass YPG Yards/Att TD/Gm INT/Gm Passer Rating
Jimmy Garoppolo 2016-17 7-0 68.1 291.1 8.7 1.4 0.7 100.7
Matthew Stafford 2015-16 16-16 66.3 268.4 7.2 1.8 0.7 95.1
Kirk Cousins 2016-17 15-16-1 65.7 281.6 7.9 1.6 0.8 95.6
Averages 66.7 280.4 7.9 1.6 0.7 97.1
Aaron Rodgers 2015-16 20-12 63.3 257.8 7.0 2.2 0.5 98.6

Leverage

Rodgers is more valuable to his team than any other player in the NFL. He may still have two seasons left on his contract, but he also has an unprecedented skill set that commands to be paid at the top of the positional market.

Reservation Price

If the Packers weren’t already talking about making him the highest paid player in NFL history, then there isn’t much of a conversation to be had.

Salary Floor: Highest-paid player in NFL history

There’s only one reason Rodgers would wait for the Cousins deal to get done: it’s going to be the floor for his negotiations moving forward.

Salary Ceiling: How high can you count?

On the open market, I truly believe Rodgers could earn $40 million a season. However, under the current circumstances, the ceiling would be $35 million per season.

Contract Projection

Rodgers is the Packers franchise; one of the faces of the NFL is compensated as such. Rodgers could take a shorter deal, ala Kirk Cousins, but the Packers will certainly offer a longer-term pact.

5 years, $165 million, $33 million APY, $110 million guaranteed, $85 million fully guaranteed

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