2018 NFL CONTRACT PROJECTION: Free Agent WR Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry Measurables

Height: 6-0
Weight: 205
Age: 25
Experience: 4 seasons
Status: Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag

Miami Dolphins Projected Cap Space (Top 51): $8.7M (per Over The Cap)

Potential Landing Spots (Cap Space):  BAL ($9.7M), SF ($69.0M), CHI ($63.6M),  CAR ($27.6M), BUF ($25.1M), NO ($31.1M), WAS ($48.5M)

Jarvis Landry Career Production

Receiving & Rushing Table
Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush
Year Age Tm G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Yds TD
2014 22 MIA 16 112 84 758 9.0 5 -4 0
2015* 23 MIA 16 166 110 1157 10.5 4 113 1
2016* 24 MIA 16 131 94 1136 12.1 4 17 0
2017* 25 MIA 16 161 112 987 8.8 9 -7 0
Care Care 64 570 400 4038 10.1 22 119 1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com

Jarvis Landry Profile

The Dolphins placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Landry on February 20.

Jarvis Landry’s the best receiver in the NFL…at what he does, putting in work in the slot. Despite his 4.77 40-yard dash at the 2014 NFL Combine, Landry takes his two-way gos and has enough speed to separate from defenders underneath. Landry runs with power for a receiver and can create after the catch.

Where he’s been limited is the vertical game, rarely seeing downfield targets. Landry route tree makes him a high percentage target. Serving almost as an extension of the running game, the LSU product led the NFL with 112 receptions in 2017 (also a Dolphins franchise record). His 400 receptions in his first four seasons, the most of any player in NFL history and 58 more than the next closest player, Anquan Boldin.

The $16.2 million franchise tag makes Landry the 2nd-highest paid receiver in the NFL, in terms of average annual value. Landry is a reception monster as an underneath receiver but doesn’t provide the value of a #1 receiver, ala Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. He’s a great compliment to an offense and could be paid close to the top tier of wide receivers.

Wide Receiver Market: Jarvis Landry Player Comparables

Player Comparables: GB Davante Adams, IND T.Y. Hilton, PHI Alshon Jeffery

Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins have the wide receiver market boomin’. Even 1B/#2 receivers have earned nice paydays. Davante Adams got $14.5 million per season but only $18 million of it is guaranteed. TY Hilton and Alshon Jeffery each landed in the $13 million range.

Contract Comparison

Player Year Age Years Total APY GTD Full GTD 2018 APY
Davante Adams 2017 25 4 $58.0M $14.5M $18.0M $18.0M $14.5M
T.Y. Hilton 2015 26 5  $65.0M  $13.0M $38.0M $11.0M $16.2M
Alshon Jeffery 2017 27 4 $52.3M $13.1M $27.3M $14.5M $13.1M
Averages     4 $58.4M  $13.5M   $27.8M   $14.5M   $14.6M 

Contract information from OverTheCap.com 

2018 Cap Adjusted Annual Salary: $14.6M million

Statistical Comparison (Two Year Averages Before Deal)

Since entering the NFL in 2014, Landry has the 3rd-most receptions (400) in the NFL. Although he hasn’t turned those receptions into production on par with the league’s elite receivers, but he does match up well with Adams, Hilton, and Jeffery.

Player Seasons Targets/Game Rec/Game Rec YPG Yards/Rec Rec TD
Davante Adams 2016-17 7.9 5.0 62.7 12.6 0.7
T.Y. Hilton 2013-14 8.3 4.6 75.4 16.3 0.3
Alshon Jeffery 2016-17 7.6 3.9 57.5 14.8 0.4
Averages   7.9 4.5 65.2 14.6 0.5
Jarvis Landry 2016-2017 9.1 6.4 66 10.3 0.4

Leverage

The move to use the franchise tag on Landry says something about how the Dolphins value Landry: enough to not let him walk for nothing. Playing the season for $16.2 million is certainly an option, especially considering he probably won’t reach that annually on a long-term extension.

Unless he’s traded after signing the tag, 2019 will either bring free agency or a 120% increase ($19.4 million) if tagged again. The latter would pay Landry $35.6 million over the next two seasons.

If the Dolphins are trying to keep Landry long term, they’d be wise to get the deal done this offseason/season rather than letting the franchise tag drag out into next season.

Salary Floor: $10-11 million per year

Allen Hurns signed a four-year, $40 million contract in 2016. Landry won’t fall below that number; he’s an eight-figure wide receiver.

Salary Ceiling:  $14 million per year

The open market rewards those who get there. The franchise tag will at the very least postpone that opportunity for Landry. With a rising cap and teams also in need of talented players at the skill position, Landry could find himself near the top tier of wide receivers.

Contract Projection

Landry is an interesting situation, which the tag further complicates. He’s a tough player to project due to his unique skillet. It’s easy to imagine a team overpaying Landry, especially if the team works out a trade because the team acquiring him will surely want a long-term contract done before finalizing the deal. This projection is fluid, based on information in coming weeks.

If he isn’t traded Landry will more than likely play the 2018 season on the $16.2M franchise tag, but if a long-term extension is agreed upon…

4 years, $54 million; $13.5 million APY, $25 million guaranteed, $20 million fully guaranteed

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